The Electoral Commission conducted a pre-election survey in early June 2005 continuing tracking of understanding of MMP, assessing present thinking about the election, asking about information and sources important to voting decision-making, and seeking general attitudes to politics.  The summary report, questionnaire, data tables and covering media release are provided here.

Methodology

For more information contact: Dr Helena Catt, Chief Executive,
Electoral Commission, catt@elections.govt.nz, tel +64 +4 +474 0676.

Summary

Understanding of MMP

A majority of people think that MMP is easy to understand, twice as many as think that it is difficult.  (Table 10)

The majority of people understand and remember that the party vote is the one that determines the share for each party in Parliament.  This is the highest level in a pre-election poll since the first MMP election. Annual surveys on this question show an ebb and flow with the highest levels for correct answers immediately after an election and the lowest in the mid-year of the election cycle.  This survey's results fit that pattern. (Tables 1 and 2)

However, of concern are:

• The quarter of respondents who think incorrectly that the electorate vote determines the share of seats each party has in parliament. (Table 1)
• The three-quarters of respondents who can not correctly identify both parts of the threshold (Table 5)
• That less than a fifth of respondents could correctly identify the party vote as the one that determines the share for each party in Parliament and both parts of the threshold. (Table 9)

Present thinking about the election

Half say they will vote and already know who for.  (Table 13)  There are clear age differences - older people are the more likely they are to already know how they will vote, in line with theories on the habitual nature of voting.  The youngest are the most likely to have not yet given the election much thought. (Table 14)

Information in the election campaign

When asked what information was most useful in deciding how to vote, party policy and who would make the best Prime Minister are seen as important by over two-thirds.  (Table 16)

Opinion polls and scandal were seen as unimportant by the majority.

The content is given greater importance than the medium.  For instance many more said an important consideration was who would make the best PM than thought the leaders' debates were important.  (Table 18)

General attitudes to politics

About a third of potential voters believe people like them don't have any say in what a government does, with less (about a quarter) thinking they do.  Nearly a fifth are neutral on this point. (Table 22)

However, a third also believed they understood what was going on in politics and about the same proportion believed parties and candidates discussed issues of real interest to voters during election campaigns.  Again, about a fifth were neutral on the first point while a larger proportion (more than a quarter) were neutral on whether parties and candidates discussed issues of real interest to voters. (Table 23 and 24)

Understanding of MMP

'From what you know and have heard, which of the two votes that you have in MMP is more important in deciding the number of MPs each party will have in parliament?  

?         The party vote,

?         The electorate vote'

Table 1

The correct answer is party vote

Results over time are in the table below.  Previous surveys used a slightly different question, the 2003 version is given above table 2 although there have been some 'tweaks' over the preceding years.

Some of the increase in people giving the correct answer may be due to the change in question which means people no longer have to remember the name of the vote.

Table 2

Just judging form what you know and have heard, which of those votes is more important in deciding the number of MPs each party will have in Parliament?'

*Includes correct response from additional probe.

Table 3 - Answers by age group

Table 4 - Answers by gender

Note there is no table showing ethnic differences as the samples of Maori, Pacific peoples and Asians are too small to sustain such analysis.

Commentary

The majority of people understand and remember that the party vote is the one that determines the share for each party in Parliament.  This is the highest level in a pre-election poll since the first MMP election, although the change in question wording may have had some impact.

Within each age group the majority gave the correct answer.  There is a gender difference with men more likely to give the correct answer and women more likely to say that they do not know.

A quarter of respondents think incorrectly that the electorate vote determines the share of seats each party has in parliament. This view is particularly prevalent amongst older voters, who used FPP for many elections. 

(Looking at the answers to this question and the later question on the threshold it is clear that people are not saying "electorate" because of their understanding of the threshold required for seat allocation based on party vote (Table 9).)

Those under the age of 25 are the most likely to say that they do not know.

'Party votes for a party are used to allocate seats in parliament for all parties which cross the threshold. Can you recall which of these a party has to do in order to cross that threshold? 

?         Win 5 percent of all party votes,

?         Win one electorate,

?         Both of these'

Table 5

The correct answer is both.

Results over time are in the table below. Previous surveys used a question different enough to prevent reliable comparison.  The 2003 version is given above Table 6 (although there were 'tweaks' over the preceding years).  Some of the differences in levels of knowledge may be due to the change in question wording.

Table 6

'From what you have heard, what must a party do to qualify for list MPs?'

In the surveys shown in Table 6 respondents were not prompted with possible answers.  Anyone who mentioned '5% of the party' vote is recorded in that line and anyone mentioning 'win an electorate' is recorded in that line and also in the 'both line'.  So in order to compare values to the 2005 data, the 'both' number has to be subtracted form each of the other values: in 2003 12% said only 5% of party vote; 7% said only win an electorate; 21% mentioned both of these.

Table 7 - by age group

Table 8 - by gender

Note: there is no table showing ethnic differences as the samples of Maori, Pacific peoples and Asians are too small to sustain such analysis.

Commentary

 Only one quarter of people correctly answer 'both' with a third choosing only the 5% of party vote answer.  Another quarter says they do not know. 

There is little clear impact of gender or age. 

A third of young voters were correct with another third unsure.

Table 9 - combined knowledge of MMP

Table shows the % of respondents in each combination of answers to the two questions about MMP.  (For instance, 27.2% think the party vote is most important and that the threshold is 5%; and 'both' was given as the answer to each of the questions by 2.2% of the respondents.)

Commentary

Less than a fifth of respondents (17.8%) gave the correct answer to both questions. 

72% were correct with a least one of the questions, the majority on the importance of the party vote in deciding the number of MPs each party will have in parliament.

' Thinking about the system we use for voting in elections - MMP.  How easy do you think it is for people like you to understand MMP?

            (5 point scale)'

Table 10

Table 11 - by age group

Table 12 - by gender

Note there is no table showing ethnic differences as the samples of Maori, Pacific peoples and Asians are too small to sustain such analysis.

Commentary

A majority of people think that MMP is easy to understand, twice as many as think that it is difficult.

There is a clear age difference with older voters (used to FPP) thinking MMP is difficult, and those in their 30s to 50s saying it is easy.  Young voters are evenly split between those finding it easy and those finding it difficult.

Present thinking about the election

'Which of these best describes your thoughts on the election to be held later this year?

• I've already made up my mind who I will vote for in the election
• I've already decided not to vote
• I will vote but I haven't decided who to vote for
• I'm not sure whether I will vote
• I haven't given the election much thought yet'

Table 13

Table 14 - by age group

Table 15 - by gender

Note there is no table showing ethnic differences as the samples of Maori, Pacific peoples and Asians are too small to sustain such analysis.

Commentary

The total saying that they will vote, 85%, is higher than recent turnout levels (76.9% in 2002), indicating that some will not and/or that those who do not intend to vote may have been less likely to participate in the survey.

Half say that they already know who they will vote for.  This figure is in line with historic and international trends.

Only 8% have not yet given the election much thought.

There are clear age differences - older people are the more likely they are to already know how they vote, in line with theories on the habitual nature of voting.

The youngest are the most likely to have not yet given the election much thought.

Information in the election campaign

'Thinking ahead to the election campaign, on a scale of one to five, where five is very important and one is not at all important, how important do you think each of the following is likely to be in helping you decide, or confirm, how you will vote? 

Respondents were given a 5 point scale.  The table and graph have merged 'not at all important' with 'not important' and have merged 'very important' with 'important'.  Not shown on the graph or table are those who said 'neutral' or 'don't know'

Table 16

Table 17

Commentary

Parties' policies and potential prime ministers are clearly seen as the most important.  These two, plus news coverage are the only three seen as important by over half of the respondents. 

Opinion polls and scandal are seen as unimportant by the majority.

The material from political parties was also not given a high level of importance.

Responses from those aged 18-34, who are the least likely to have already decided how to vote' put the different factors in the same order, with the one exception that the last two items in Table 17 are reversed in order.

Separating the different forms of information that were included in the question into those that refer to the content and those that refer to the medium shows some clear distinctions. 

For instance many more said an important consideration was who would make the best PM than thought the leaders debate was important (68% and 45%).

Table 18

Likewise party policy is vastly more popular than two of the common sources of such information during an election campaign.

Table 19

For all respondents who say they have not yet decided if they will vote or who they will vote for - 470 people:

Table 20 - not decided if or for who voting

Not shown on the graph or table are those who said 'neutral' or 'don't know'

Table 21

Commentary

The descending order is the same for the full set of respondents and for the half who have not already made a decision about the election.

General attitudes to politics

About a third of potential voters believe people like them don't have any say in what a government does, with less (about a quarter) thinking they do.  Nearly a fifth are neutral on this point.

However, a third also believed they understood what was going on in politics and about the same proportion believed parties and candidates discussed issues of real interest to voters during election campaigns.  Again, about a fifth were neutral on the first point while a larger proportion (more than a quarter) were neutral on whether parties and candidates discussed issues of real interest to voters.

'On a scale of one to five, where five is strongly agree and one is strongly disagree, to what extent do you agree with the following statements?'

'People like me don't have any say in what the Government does.'

Table 22

'Sometimes politics seems so complicated it is hard for people like me to understand what is going on.'

Table 23

'During election campaigns, political parties and candidates discuss issues that are of real interest to me.'

Table 24