The following is extracted from the full research report available under Downloads, right. 

Please note that references to percentage shifts (eg up 6%) are specifying percentage point shifts, and not a shift by that percentage of the previous period's result.

Executive summary

• There is an established trend for understanding of MMP to increase in election year, and 2008 was no exception to this. Indeed, understanding of MMP was higher in 2008 than it was at the same point in 2005 and on a question tracking back to before the first MMP election in 1996, was the second highest ever recorded in a pre-election survey. Key points include:
  • 58% of New Zealanders now said that they find MMP easy to understand, compared with 54% on the 2005 pre-election survey and 51% in 2007.
  • 67% identified the party vote as more important than the electorate vote, higher than either the pre-election or post-election results in 2005 and the highest in a pre-election survey since in the first MMP election in 1996 (70%).
  • 34% correctly identified the MMP threshold as being winning either five percent of the party vote or one electorate seat, up 7% since 2007 (question not asked in earlier surveys).
• The demographic trends showed declared understanding of MMP increasing most amongst those who were from groups who felt that they understood the system.
  • Declared understanding increased more, for example, amongst high income earners and amongst non-Māori than it did amongst low income earners and Māori, and high income earners and non-Māori groups which felt that they understood MMP.
  • This trend did not continue, however, for the questions related to knowledge of specific aspects of MMP. Indeed, some of the largest increases were amongst those who had relatively little knowledge in the 2007 study (e.g. the proportion of Pacific people identifying the party vote as more important rose by 14%, while 11% more people with personal incomes of $25-$30,000 chose the correct threshold option).
• In line with the greater understanding of MMP, respondents became a little more likely to say that they had a good idea what MPs did (up 3% to 41%) or to disagree with the assertion that ‘politics is too complicated’ (up 4% to 36%).
• There was also an increase in declared confidence in the management of New Zealand elections, with 85% now rating their confidence as 7 or higher on a 0-10 scale where 10 meant very confident (up 5% since 2007). The proportion saying that they were very confident (rating it 10 out of 10) rose 4% to 42%.
• The numbers continue to support the view that non-voting is more about disengagement than dissatisfaction. Non-voters were less likely than voters to have an opinion on most questions and although there was an 11% fall from 2007 in the proportion of non-voters saying that voting makes a difference, a majority still believed that it did.
  • Although non-voters remain well behind voters on all ‘knowledge’ questions, the proportions saying that MMP was easy to understand (up 4% to 37%) or choosing the correct MMP threshold (up 7% to 24%) increased in 2008.
• Key observations on other demographic trends include:
  • While more than two thirds of 18-24 year olds believed that voting made a difference, relatively high proportions of this group also felt that they lacked knowledge about politics, the role of MPs and the mechanics of MMP. This was also the case in 2007.
  • Also as in 2007, Asian respondents were less likely to have an opinion or chose an option on a range of questions, indicating both lack of detailed knowledge and awareness that they lack this knowledge.
  • Pacific people were just as likely as NZ Europeans to choose the party vote as the more important of the two (whereas in 2007 they were less likely to), but were still less likely to say that they found MMP easy to understand.
  • As in 2007, women showed stronger agreement than men with both ‘voting makes a difference’ and ‘politics is complicated’
  • Māori were marginally more likely than NZ Europeans to strongly agree that ‘voting makes a difference’, but we know from many previous studies that Māori are less likely to vote.

Methodology

As part of its ongoing research programme, the Electoral Commission contracted UMR Research to conduct quantitative research in 2007 and 2008 looking at public understanding of MMP and engagement with the electoral process. 

Modules of questions covering these three areas were asked in the UMR Research nation-wide Omnibus survey. This is a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years of age and over conducted every two weeks from UMR Research’s national interview facility in Auckland.

The latest results come from four waves of the omnibus survey.

• 3rd to 8th July 2008
• 18th to 28th July 2008
• 31st July to 5th August 2008
• 14th to 19th August 2008.

The same questions were asked in all four waves, making for a total sample of n=3000. This was the same approach as used in 2007.

Several of the questions were based on questions asked previously for the Electoral Commission by other research companies and trendline information is provided where available. The most recent results from this are from TNS’s post-election telephone survey of 1004 New Zealanders, aged 18 and over conducted from 18th to 30th September 2005.

The questions were asked over four omnibus surveys in order to maximise the total number of respondents and allow for analysis of smaller sub-samples.

The margin of error for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ based on a sample of n=3000 is ±1.8%.